Who’s got the best shot at being the next Pope? The Catholic Church’s future hinges on this choice, and the betting odds from Kalshi are buzzing. With 1.4 billion Catholics watching, the next Pope will shape global faith, politics, and culture. I’m breaking down the top contenders for 2025, from Pietro Parolin at 28% to Anders Arborelius at under 1%. Why care? This isn’t just Vatican gossip—it affects everything from social justice to geopolitics. I’ll give you the raw numbers, why they matter, and who’s got the edge. No fluff, just the real stuff. Let’s dive in.
Why the Next Pope Matters
The Pope isn’t just a spiritual figurehead. He influences global policies, from climate change to human rights. Curious about where the Church is headed? The next Pope’s views will ripple through your newsfeed, your community, and maybe your life. These odds show who’s likely to steer that ship.
Top Contenders for the Next Pope: 2025 Odds
Here’s Kalshi’s latest on who’s got the best shot at being the next Pope:
- Pietro Parolin (Italy): 28%
- Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): 23%
- Peter Turkson (Ghana): 12%
- Matteo Zuppi (Italy): 11%
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy): 9%
- Peter Erdo (Hungary): 5%
- Fridolin Ambongo (DRC): 4%
- Robert Sarah (Guinea): 3%
- Mario Grech (Malta): 2%
- Jean-Marc Aveline (France): 1%
- Anders Arborelius (Sweden): <1%
Italians are dominating, but Africa and Asia are in the mix. Let’s break down the heavy hitters.
Pietro Parolin: The Frontrunner
Parolin’s at 28% for a reason. He’s the Vatican’s Secretary of State, a diplomatic beast who’s navigated deals with China and the Middle East. He’s a moderate, but some say he’s too cozy with politics over faith. If you want stability, he’s your guy.
[](https://abcnews.go.com/International/top-contenders-pope-experts-weigh/story?id=121011243)Luis Antonio Tagle: The Asian Hope
Tagle’s at 23%, with a progressive vibe. He’s pushed for kinder stances on LGBTQ+ and divorced Catholics, but he’s no radical. A Filipino Pope would be historic, especially with Asia’s growing Catholic base. Some whisper he’s lost favor, though.
[](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/21/who-next-pope-francis-potential-candidates-succeed)Peter Turkson: The African Trailblazer
Turkson’s at 12%, a social justice warrior from Ghana. He’s big on climate and poverty, but conservative on some social issues. A Black Pope? That’d shake things up after 1,500 years. He’s got fans, but he’s not begging for the job.
[](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgxk40ndk1o)Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa: Italian Contenders
Zuppi (11%) is a progressive “street priest” who bikes around Bologna. Pizzaballa (9%) is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, a peacemaker in a war zone. Both align with Francis’s focus on the poor, but Zuppi’s got more Vatican clout.
[](https://www.politico.eu/article/pope-francis-death-who-succeed-parolin-pizzaballa-tagle-turkson-besungu-burke-spengler-erdo/)What Drives the Odds of Becoming the Next Pope?
It’s not just a popularity contest. Here’s what’s tilting the scales:
- Global Reach: Parolin and Tagle have international cred, crucial for a global Church.
- Progressive vs. Conservative: Zuppi and Tagle lean progressive; Erdo and Sarah are traditionalists.
- Age: Cardinals want someone mature but not too old—65-75 is the sweet spot.
- Francis’s Legacy: 80% of voting cardinals were picked by Francis, so his progressive vibe might stick.
But surprises happen. Conclaves are secretive, and dark horses can emerge.
[](https://www.nytimes.com/article/next-pope-francis-candidates.html)Why You Should Care About the Next Pope
Think this is just for Catholics? Wrong. The next Pope will weigh in on wars, climate, and social issues. Moving to Europe? The Church’s stance affects policy. Investing in green tech? Turkson’s environmental push could matter. This choice shapes the world, not just the Vatican.
How I Got These Odds
I pulled from Kalshi’s prediction market, a betting platform tracking real-time odds. Cross-checked with news like The Guardian and BBC for context on candidates. These numbers shift, but they’re the best pulse we’ve got right now. No guesswork, just data.
[](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/21/who-next-pope-francis-potential-candidates-succeed)Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What makes someone a top pick for the next Pope?
Diplomacy, alignment with Francis’s values, and global influence. Age and region matter too.
Why are Italians leading the odds?
Vatican’s Italian roots and their diplomatic experience give them an edge.
Could an African or Asian Pope really happen?
Yes. Growing Catholic populations in Africa and Asia make Turkson and Tagle strong picks.
How reliable are these odds?
Kalshi’s market reflects bets, not votes. Conclaves are unpredictable, but odds show trends.
What’s at stake with the next Pope?
The Church’s stance on social issues, climate, and global conflicts will shift with the new leader.
Final Thoughts on Who’s Got the Best Shot
Parolin’s got the edge at 28%, with Tagle nipping at his heels at 23%. Turkson, Zuppi, and Pizzaballa are in the fight, but dark horses like Erdo could surprise. The next Pope will steer 1.4 billion Catholics and influence global issues. Keep an eye on these odds—they’re your window into who’s got the best shot at being the next Pope.
